The job market is in trouble, and it’s worse than most people realize. Job openings in October plummeted to their lowest point since February 2021, according to data from Indeed, leaving many job seekers in a state of uncertainty. Imagine walking into a job fair, brochure in hand, only to find fewer opportunities than you’ve seen in years—that’s the reality for many Americans right now. But here’s where it gets controversial: while some blame the prolonged government shutdown for this downturn, others argue it’s part of a larger economic trend that’s been brewing for months. And this is the part most people miss: the decline isn’t just about fewer job postings—it’s also about shrinking salaries and a labor market that’s losing steam fast.
Indeed’s Job Postings Index, a key indicator of employment trends, dropped to 101.9 as of October 24—the lowest since early 2021, with February 2020 as the baseline of 100. This represents a 0.5% dip from the start of October and a staggering 3.5% fall since mid-August. Normally, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) would release its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) to shed light on these shifts, but the shutdown has left economists scrambling for alternative data. The last JOLTS report, from August, showed job openings at 7.23 million—flat compared to July but down 7% from January. It’s a clear sign that the labor market is softening, and it’s not just about the numbers—it’s about people’s livelihoods.
Adding to the concern, Indeed’s data also reveals a pullback in salary offerings. Year-over-year wage growth, as measured by salary postings, rose just 2.5% in August, down from 3.4% in January. This slowdown has caught the attention of Federal Reserve officials, who are now prioritizing labor market risks over inflation concerns. Last week, the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee voted 10-2 to cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point to a target range of 3.75%-4%. But here’s the question: Is this enough to reverse the trend, or are we on the brink of a deeper economic shift?
Fed Governor Lisa Cook summed it up bluntly: ‘Hiring is slowing. We see this from Indeed, from job postings. There’s reason to be concerned.’ The usual nonfarm payrolls report, expected on Friday, has also been delayed due to the shutdown. Economists predict it would have shown a loss of 60,000 jobs in October and an unemployment rate rise to 4.5%. So, what do you think? Is this just a temporary blip, or a sign of something more troubling? Let’s hear your thoughts in the comments—this is a conversation we all need to be having.
