Amidst the uncertainty of U.S. leadership, can its allies take charge of their destinies? The question looms large as the world grapples with the implications of a shifting global order. Ben Bland, director of the Asia-Pacific Program at Chatham House and author of two books on Asian politics, delves into this complex issue.
Even before President Trump's return to the White House, a stark contradiction emerged in conversations with diplomatic and security officials across Europe and Asia. On one hand, U.S. allies expressed deep concerns about the potential breakdown of the international order that has underpinned their stability for decades. On the other, they hesitated to invest in the structural changes necessary to navigate an increasingly uncertain world.
However, recent developments suggest a potential shift. U.S. allies in Europe and the Indo-Pacific have demonstrated a growing willingness to collaborate and cooperate on a wide range of shared interests, from trade to defense and alliance management to China. The U.K., France, and Germany, key European allies, share common ground with Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and South Korea, the Indo-Pacific pillars of the U.S. alliance system, as democratic middle powers committed to open trade and investment.
The foreign ministers of these seven countries, along with Poland, a crucial European security player, recently met on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York. They acknowledged the intertwining of peace, security, and resilience in the Indo-Pacific and Europe. In a groundbreaking move, they promised to enhance cooperation on maritime security, cybersecurity, economic security, climate change, and broader geopolitical uncertainties, even without the U.S. present.
On economic policy, these nations aim to shield themselves from Beijing's weaponization of its dominance in manufacturing and emerging technologies. They also seek better defenses against rising protectionist pressures from the U.S., which predated President Trump's return to the White House.
How can U.S. allies organize among themselves? The answer lies in cooperation around the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), a regional trade agreement supported by Washington before President Trump's withdrawal in 2017. Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and the U.K. are CPTPP members, while South Korea is considering joining, and the European Union has discussed deepening trade ties with the CPTPP.
Another critical area for collaboration is technology. Both China and the U.S. are aggressively vying for leadership in key technologies like artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and electric vehicle batteries. None of Washington's major allies possess the financial clout or corporate base to compete individually. However, they can pool their knowledge and resources to ensure they remain at the forefront. Additionally, they can discuss strategies to prevent isolation in a world of diverging technological systems and standards.
In defense and intelligence, the U.S. remains irreplaceable as the anchor. Yet, European and Indo-Pacific allies are already expanding their connections and reducing reliance on U.S. leadership, connections, and defense procurement. For instance, Italy, Japan, and the U.K. are collaborating on the Global Combat Air Program to develop their next-generation aircraft, marking a significant step towards interweaving defense and security among European and Indo-Pacific allies.
Overcoming tensions and leading without a central leader is a challenge. The shift is not about severing ties with Washington but adapting to U.S. domestic political changes and enabling U.S. allies to contribute more independently.
However, coordinating between middle powers in Europe and Asia without the U.S. leadership's weight will be difficult. Within the EU, France and Germany's clashing interests and political wrangling over the Future Combat Air System program highlight the challenges. The U.K.'s post-Brexit isolation further complicates defense and industrial cooperation.
In the Indo-Pacific, historical tensions between Japan and South Korea have historically hindered their ability to cooperate with the U.S. and other allies.
To overcome these challenges, a visionary approach and smart leadership are essential. If U.S. allies in Europe and the Indo-Pacific fail to unite, they may lack the resources and scale to thrive in these uncertain times.
